Reflecting on their relationship, PM Modi expressed his anticipation for future collaboration:
“As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership”
*Michael Kugelman, South Asia Director at the Wilson Center: “Trump’s victory means that the Indian policies that have put New Delhi at odds with the West will no longer be a cause of concern for Washington”
**Uday Chandra, South Asia and Foreign Policy Expert: “He is a refreshing reset from the Indian perspective… he is much more transactional”
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“Hearty congratulations to my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic electoral victory” Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Reflecting on their relationship, Prime Minister Modi expressed his hope for future cooperation: “As you build on the successes of your past tenure, I look forward to renewing our cooperation to further strengthen the India-US comprehensive global and strategic partnership”
Trump-Modi Relationship: A Historical Context:
The friendship between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi has been characterized by mutual understanding and shared goals since their earliest meetings. Their rapport was publicly demonstrated during events such as “Howdy Modi” in Houston and “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad, symbolizing the deepening of ties between the world’s largest democracies. Trump’s first term saw significant cooperation on various fronts, including defense, trade, and counterterrorism, setting a precedent for future cooperation.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House and Narendra Modi’s continued leadership in India is a pivotal moment in global politics. Their relationship, characterised by mutual admiration and strategic alignment, has the potential to reshape international relations. Here is a detailed look at what this return means for the two leaders and their countries.
The return of Donald Trump and Narendra Modi to influential positions has triggered a wave of global analysis. Many see it as the beginning of a new era marked by the resurgence of populist politics, while some argue that it may signal the beginning of the end for their brand of leadership. Both leaders, known for their strong, nationalistic rhetoric, are facing familiar and new challenges. This chapter explores what their return means for domestic politics, international relations and the broader global order.
Confusion
Donald Trump’s recent return to the presidency has given rise to significant discussion about its implications for global politics, particularly with regard to India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. As the two leaders prepare to begin a new chapter in their countries’ bilateral relations, the question arises: is this a new era or simply the end of a chapter?
1. **Personal rapport and political chemistry**
The personal rapport between Trump and Modi has been the cornerstone of their relationship. Their friendship was evident during events such as “Howdy Modi!” in Houston and “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad. Trump once called Modi a “fantastic person” and a “true friend”. This personal chemistry is expected to play a key role in his second term, leading to closer ties between the US and India.
2. ** Strategic alignment**
The two leaders share a vision of economic nationalism and strategic autonomy. Trump’s “America First” policy meshes well with Modi’s “Make in India” initiative. This alignment is likely to strengthen economic and defence cooperation. The Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) signed during his previous tenure is testimony to his commitment to enhance military cooperation.
3. **Domestic Politics: Return to familiar territory**
Both Trump and Modi are charismatic individuals who have relied heavily on populist strategies to attract their domestic audiences. His return shows that his core messages continue to resonate with large segments of his population.
**Trump’s Return**
Trump’s victory represents a reaffirmation of his “America First” agenda. In his previous term, he focused on deregulation, tax cuts, and an outspoken stance on immigration, which garnered a devoted base. Those same supporters see his return as an opportunity to continue unfinished work, particularly on issues of border security, economic nationalism, and cultural conservatism. However, critics argue that his divisive rhetoric and controversial policies are a step backward for American unity.
*”The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no more,”* Trump famously said during his first victory speech, a line that defined his second rise to power.
**Modi’s Leadership in India**
Modi’s return to India is also a sign of the enduring power of his leadership style. His tenure has been marked by a strong Hindu nationalist narrative, significant economic reforms, and an emphasis on India’s global stature. Modi’s policies, such as demonetisation and the goods and services tax (GST), have faced both praise and criticism. Still, his ability to connect with the grassroots through programmes such as “Swachh Bharat” (Clean India) and his focus on digitalisation have ensured a loyal support base.
*”Modi’s politics is about emotions, and he knows how to speak to the common Indian,”* says Pratap Bhanu Mehta, a noted Indian political scientist
4. **Economic Policies: Continuity or Change**
Economic Cooperation and Trade Challenges: While the economic partnership between the US and India is likely to grow, challenges remain. Trump’s protectionist stance and his emphasis on fair trade could create tensions. During his first term, Trump dubbed India a “tariff king” and imposed tariffs on many Indian goods. Modi’s government will have to deal with these challenges to maintain strong economic ties.
For both Trump and Modi, economic strategies are key to their political brands. Their economic philosophies focus on self-reliance and prioritizing national industries, but there are significant differences in execution.
**Trump’s Economic Approach**
Trump is expected to pursue policies aimed at reducing reliance on global supply chains, promoting domestic manufacturing, and revisiting trade deals such as the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). His stance on tariffs, especially with China, is likely to remain tough, seeing it as a means to protect American jobs and intellectual property.
*”Tariffs are the best!”* Trump once tweeted, summarizing his strategy to pressure foreign competitors and encourage local businesses.
Economic Policies: Continuity or Change : Economic Cooperation and Trade Challenges: While the economic partnership between the U.S. and India is poised to grow, challenges remain. Trump’s protectionist stance and his emphasis on fair trade could lead to tensions. During his first term, Trump labeled India the “tariff king” and imposed tariffs on several Indian goods. Modi’s government will need to navigate these challenges to maintain a robust economic relationship.
For both Trump and Modi, economic strategies are crucial to their political brands. Their economic philosophies focus on self-reliance and prioritizing national industries, but with significant differences in execution.
**Trump’s Economic Vision**
Expect Trump to push forward with policies aimed at reducing dependence on global supply chains, bolstering domestic manufacturing, and revisiting trade deals like the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). His stance on tariffs, particularly regarding China, is likely to remain tough, viewing it as a means to protect American jobs and intellectual property.
*”Tariffs are the greatest!”* Trump once tweeted, encapsulating his strategy to pressure foreign competitors and incentivize local businesses.
**Modi’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (Self-Reliant India)**
Modi’s comeback will likely involve reinforcing his “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative, aimed at reducing India’s dependence on foreign goods and boosting indigenous industries. Modi’s vision aligns with bolstering sectors like defense manufacturing, agriculture, and technology, emphasizing a push for India to become a global production hub. However, challenges like unemployment, agrarian distress, and social disparities may complicate this vision.
Economic Cooperation and Trade Challenges: While the economic partnership between the US and India is likely to grow, challenges remain. Trump’s protectionist stance and his emphasis on fair trade could cause tensions. During his first term, Trump dubbed India the “tariff king” and imposed tariffs on many Indian goods.
Modi’s government will have to address these challenges to maintain strong economic ties.
Economic Policies and Strategic Interests: Both leaders advocate business innovation and economic growth, which could lead to transformational change on the global economic stage. Trump’s “America First” policy is in line with Modi’s aspirations to make India the third-largest economy globally. As a recent analysis noted, “Under his leadership, India and the US could potentially make significant inroads on the global economic stage”
This alignment suggests that their new partnership could enhance economic ties as well as address shared challenges, such as balancing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Challenges ahead
However, Trump’s return also brings challenges that need to be handled carefully. His protectionist trade policies could clash with India’s economic interests, requiring Modi to balance diplomatic engagement with national priorities. Analysts have pointed out that India must “balance economic optimism with caution” as it pursues its ties with the unpredictable partner.
5.**Foreign Policy: Nationalism on the Global Stage**
Both leaders have shown a keen interest in reshaping foreign policy to reflect nationalist priorities, impacting alliances, trade, and global diplomacy.
**Trump’s America First: The Sequel**
Trump’s foreign policy is expected to focus on reinforcing American sovereignty, a theme that dominated his previous administration. His approach to alliances, often transactional, could see NATO allies urged to increase defense spending and trade relationships revisited with a critical eye. Trump’s stance on China will likely remain combative, emphasizing economic decoupling and competition in technology and military power.
*”The world is laughing at us,”* Trump has said about previous administrations’ foreign policies, reflecting his determination to project strength and renegotiate from a position of power.
**Modi’s Global Ambitions**
For Modi, foreign policy centers around enhancing India’s image as a global leader while balancing ties with major powers like the U.S., Russia, and China. Modi’s emphasis on strategic autonomy, evident in India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, will likely continue. His diplomatic approach, often termed “Modi Doctrine,” seeks to project India as a mediator and a responsible global player, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
*”India’s time has come,”* Modi declared at a recent BRICS summit, underscoring his vision of India’s rising influence.
6. **Social and Cultural Landscape: Divisive Narratives?**
The returns of Trump and Modi are also a commentary on the cultural and social divides that have deepened in their respective countries.
Cultural and Community Ties
Culturally, the Indian diaspora in the United States has played an essential role in shaping perceptions and policies toward India. The strong support from this community during Trump’s campaign indicates that he may prioritize issues relevant to Indian Americans, including concerns over rising Hinduphobia and Khalistani activism in North America. The Modi-Trump camaraderie could provide a platform for addressing these issues effectively.
*Trump’s Cultural Battles**
Trump’s rhetoric often polarizes the American electorate along ideological lines, emphasizing conservative values, religious freedom, and traditional social norms. His return has renewed debates on topics like critical race theory, immigration, and identity politics, which resonate strongly with his base but alienate liberal and moderate voters.
**Modi’s Hindutva Agenda**
Modi’s leadership has seen a rise in Hindu nationalism, with policies that critics argue marginalize minorities, especially Muslims. The revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) have been viewed as attempts to reshape India’s secular fabric. Supporters, however, praise Modi for taking bold steps that they believe uphold India’s cultural heritage.
*”Our cultural values are our strength,”* Modi often states, aligning his policies with India’s ancient traditions.
7. **Challenges and Criticisms: Learning from the Past**
The return of both leaders is not without significant challenges. Each faces skepticism and a more informed and critical opposition.
**Trump’s Legal Troubles and Public Perception**
Trump’s return is clouded by ongoing legal battles and investigations into his past conduct. These controversies could undermine his authority, even as they reinforce his narrative of being a victim of the “deep state.” Additionally, his unorthodox style, while appealing to a core group of supporters, has alienated many within his own party.
**Modi’s Economic and Social Hurdles**
In India, Modi’s comeback may be overshadowed by concerns about economic inequalities, religious tensions, and a slowing job market. His economic policies, though ambitious, have had mixed outcomes, leading some to question the sustainability of his development model.
4. Defense and Security Collaboration
Defense cooperation is expected to be a significant focus. The U.S. and India have conducted joint military exercises and signed key defense agreements. Trump’s support for India’s defense capabilities, including potential technology transfers, will be crucial in countering regional threats, particularly from China.
5. Geopolitical Implications
Trump’s return could have profound geopolitical implications. His non-interventionist approach and focus on bilateral relations may lead to a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy. Modi, on the other hand, seeks to position India as a counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific region. Their combined efforts could reshape the strategic landscape of the region.
Geopolitical Dynamics: The geopolitical landscape has shifted considerably since Trump’s first term. With growing tensions involving China and Russia, India stands to benefit from a strong US partnership. Trump’s administration is expected to maintain a firm stance against China, which aligns with India’s strategic interests. This partnership could provide India with enhanced support in areas such as defense and intelligence-sharing, crucial for asserting its territorial claims. Moreover, Trump’s approach towards Pakistan regarding Kashmir may lead to increased international pressure on Islamabad, further solidifying India’s position on this contentious issue. As one expert noted, “Trump’s support for India could translate into even greater international pressure on Pakistan”
6. Human Rights and Democratic Values
One area of potential friction is human rights. Modi’s government has faced criticism for its handling of minority rights and democratic backsliding. While the Biden administration raised these issues, Trump is less likely to do so, focusing instead on strategic and economic interests. This could lead to a more pragmatic, albeit controversial, partnership.
7. Technology and Innovation
Both leaders have emphasized the importance of technology and innovation. The U.S. and India are likely to collaborate on various technological fronts, including cybersecurity, space exploration, and digital infrastructure. This collaboration could drive significant advancements and economic growth in both countries.
8. Immigration and Skilled Workforce
Immigration policies could be another area of contention. Trump’s stringent immigration policies, particularly regarding H1-B visas, have impacted Indian professionals. Modi’s government will need to advocate for more favorable immigration policies to support the Indian diaspora in the U.S.
9. Climate Change and Environmental Policies
Climate change is a critical global issue, but it may not be a priority for Trump. Modi, however, has committed to various environmental initiatives. Balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability will be a challenge for both leaders,
10. Future Prospects and Challenges
The future of Trump-Modi relations will depend on their ability to navigate these complex issues. Their shared vision and strategic alignment offer significant opportunities, but potential challenges could strain their partnership. As they embark on this new era, the world will be watching closely to see if their comeback marks a new chapter or the end of an era.
### 6. **A New Era or the End of a Chapter?**
The question remains: does the return of Trump and Modi signal a new era of populist consolidation, or is it the beginning of the end for their style of governance?
**A New Era of Populism?**
Their resurgence can be seen as proof that nationalist and populist movements are not merely political trends but enduring forces that respond to real and perceived grievances of the masses. In an era of increasing polarization, their leadership styles—characterized by direct communication, strong personalities, and the promise to break with traditional politics—appeal to those disillusioned with the establishment.
**End of a Chapter?**
Conversely, others argue that their comebacks might highlight the limitations of populism. Critics suggest that their style of governance, heavy on symbolism and rhetoric, often lacks the institutional support needed for sustainable long-term changes. Economic challenges, social polarization, and diplomatic complexities could expose the limits of their approaches.
**Conclusion**
The return of Donald Trump and Narendra Modi reflects a significant moment in global politics, indicating both the persistence of populist narratives and the challenges that come with them. Whether this marks a new era of political dominance or the final act of a unique political chapter will depend largely on their ability to adapt, deliver, and respond to the evolving expectations of their electorates and the global community. As they navigate these uncertainties, the world watches closely, assessing whether their brand of leadership will redefine the future or be relegated to the past.
The return of Trump and the continued leadership of Modi herald a new era in U.S.-India relations. Their personal rapport, strategic alignment, and shared vision for economic nationalism present significant opportunities for collaboration. However, challenges in trade, human rights, and immigration policies could test their partnership. As they navigate these complexities, their ability to adapt and cooperate will determine whether this marks a new beginning or the end of a chapter in their political journey.
As Trump embarks on his second term, it is evident that both he and Modi share a vision for strengthening bilateral ties based on mutual interests. Their relationship has weathered various global challenges, indicating resilience that could define this new era. However, whether this partnership will lead to substantial advancements or merely reflect past dynamics remains uncertain. The world will be watching closely as they navigate trade agreements, defense collaborations, and regional stability initiatives.
While there are promising signs of a strengthened alliance between Trump and Modi that could herald a new era in India-US relations, significant challenges require careful diplomacy and strategic foresight. The upcoming months will be critical in determining whether this relationship can evolve beyond previous frameworks or if it will simply reiterate established patterns from their first term together.